The Blue Monkey Review

Since the issue first appeared last spring, I have assumed that independence would result from the referendum. On radio and television, the only advertisements on the subject came from the independence party, i.e., the government of Milo Djukanovic who has said that the relation with Serbia has become “dysfunctional.” The slogan adopted by the separation movement (or their media wise men) was “Samo jest’ dena Crna Gora.” Literally, that comes out as “There is only one Montenegro.” But it also can take the meaning that Crna Gora is only Crna Gora when it is alone (independent). My strongly pro-Serbian student (and friend) Alexander Bogdonovic would grumble when I mentioned the slogan. “I don’t want to hear,” he would say.

Recently, I talked with Nenad “Ned” Radulovich, a Candaian-American whose family is Serbian and who lived in Serbia while doing research for his dissertation on World War II diplomacy in Yugoslavia. Ned thinks the independence vote will fall short of the 55% majority established by the European Union for recognition of independent status. Thirty per cent of the population, in Ned’s analysis, is Muslim (Bosnian or Albanian) or Croatian. Those groups will almost certainly vote for independence as a show of contempt toward Serbia (however, he also noted that pro-Serbian partisans are trying to convince Bosnian Muslims not to break up the Muslim Sanjak, which includes parts of Serbia and Montenegro). For independence to result, more than one-third of the 70% of Montenegrins who are Serbian (i.e., consider themselves affiliated with Serbian Orthodoxy) will have to embrace it. Ned thinks independence can gain a majority, but not the higher standard set by the E.U.

I’m impressed with Ned’s analysis, though I still tend to think Montenegro is on its way out of Yugoslavia. Quite apart from the Catholics and Muslims, who don’t have any sentimental attachment to Serbia, many Serbian Montenegrins want independence. Residents in and around Cetinje (the former capital city of prince bishops who ruled the country for generations and of the short-lived Kingdom of Montenegro) strongly support independence. Niksic (my temporary home), the second largest city in Montenegro, has continued as the base for Djukanovic and his party. Podgorica, the current capital and largest city (about 100,000 of 600,000) , might play a deciding role. But when I visited Podgorica, it was visibly (indeed, strikingly) awash with E.U. aid and NGO involvement. It’s hard not to believe that Podgoricans don’t already consider themselves Europeans rather than Yugoslavians.

The other part of the support for independence among “Serbian” Montenegrins comes from the belief that the country will quickly become prosperous once it no longer has ties with Serbia. When I talked to students in Cetinje about the referendum, they had no doubt that Montenegro would attract tourists from all over Europe. “People tell us that the coast is better here than anywhere they’ve seen. We have mountains for skiing, beaches, forests. Everything.” So true! Montenegro is an astonishingly beautiful country. And the belief that the natural attractions of Montenegro will draw tourist dollars seems fairly well-founded. I’m sure it will become an important tourist destination in the near future, though more as a part of the growing attraction of the Adriatic Riviera that extends from Split to Dubrovnik, just a short drive from the Montenegrin border.

What I’m not sure of, though, is whether Montenegrins will really enjoy the prosperity they expect. Any visitor to Acapulco would have to admit that tourism can attract foreign exchange without leading to generalized development. Currently Montenegro lacks much of the infrastructure necessary to take advantage of a rush of tourists. Those ruggedly beautiful mountains make for some perilous driving. Foreign aid to build roads has made important improvements, but many of those Euros and Dollars disappeared into the pockets of politicians and bureaucrats. So, for instance, the excellent two-lane road from Podgorica to the airport, built with U.S. money, was supposed to have been a four-lane road. And I’ve already gone on at some length about the garbage problem. The kind of investment needed to really capitalize tourism will necessarily come from abroad. I think in coming years a lot of Montenegrins will find work with German hotel chains.